The Return of the Atom

By Tim Lerew, Cold War Patriots Spokesperson, Emeritus

Cold War Patriots, and most of their friends and family, are familiar with acronyms; those multi-letter abbreviations that describe the people, things, or work processes that are everyday features of a nuclear weapons or uranium worker’s daily life. For example, the acronym HP? That stands for Health Physics or a Health Physics employee, one of the many workers responsible for protecting everyone from radiation and toxic exposure. And HALEU? That refers to High Assay Low Enriched Uranium.

In recent years, the acronym SMR, which stands for Small Modular Reactor, has joined the nuclear industry’s growing alphabet soup. Unlike any of the 94 large civilian nuclear reactors currently used to generate nearly 20% of America’s electricity, SMRs are designed to be what their name implies: smaller, modular nuclear reactors that are also tasked to produce heat and electricity, but at a much smaller scale and with greater safety and potentially lower costs than traditional nuclear power plants. Typically, their power output is just 1% to 3% of their larger, traditional cousins. Since they are modular in design, several can be combined to generate larger amounts of power. While the first examples of U.S.-built SMRs are just now moving from concept to production, we already see countries like China, Russia, and France pushing forward with this new nuclear power platform approach. Let’s examine why.

The Surge in U.S. Electricity Demand

Until recently, electricity demand in the United States grew at a fairly predictable rate of 1% to 1.5% per year from the end of World War II until 2007. From 2007 until 2020, electricity demand and generation actually fell by about 3%, as energy efficiency measures such as new LED light bulbs and improved industrial processes began to take hold. However, since the COVID-19 era, electricity demand has surged, recently increasing at a rate of 4.3% per year. Compounded annually, that means the U.S. will need nearly 20% more total electrical generating capacity over the next five years than it generates today. You can likely guess two of the largest reasons why: artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and all those newer electric vehicles on the road that need to be regularly charged.

The increased electricity demand in the U. S. and throughout the world creates the need to generate more power. And to do so with less carbon or fossil fuels, but more reliably than with wind and solar alone, a global consensus is emerging that a safer, more sustainable approach to nuclear power energy generation is required. So, in recent years, we’ve seen a steady increase in the price per ton of uranium ore, now with prices at their highest point in more than thirty years. Yet the Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima nuclear plant accidents turned public sentiment against traditional nuclear power generation. In the face of increasing demand for “clean” energy generation, the push for small modular reactors (SMRs) took root. Significantly, unlike large traditional nuclear power plants that run the risk of failure or core meltdown should they lose the ability to circulate water around their reactor cores, SMRs are designed to use a variety of technologies to passively “self-cool” in an emergency, or when outside power is not available, without the typical hazards of radioactive accidents.

Emerging SMR Technologies and Global Investment Trends

These new “fourth-generation” nuclear reactor designs being developed for SMRs use one of four approaches: Light Water Reactors (LWRs), High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGRs), Liquid Metal Fast Reactors (LMFRs), and Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). Interestingly, China and Russia are taking a state-sponsored, strategic approach to developing the complex fuel and manufacturing infrastructure to make SMRs a reality in their countries. The U.S. is mostly taking a private capital approach, supplemented by Department of Energy (DOE) loan guarantees and grants, with over 40 different U.S. companies emerging to do parts of the work, many of which are taking root in familiar places like Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and Piketon, Ohio. Existing nuclear power plants, and the new ones that are envisioned, will all require fuel, and the rising price of uranium on the world market has resulted in the recent reintroduction of uranium mining operations in Wyoming, Utah, and Arizona.

The Path to Shaping the Future of Nuclear Innovation

Success in this emerging field will come down to the three principal factors of need, cost, and motivation. We now know that the accelerating need for more abundant, persistent energy is here. Yet the costs of commercializing these new approaches to nuclear power are vast. World War II’s Manhattan Project costs were $2 billion in 1945, worth about $36 billion in today’s currency. That investment, coupled with the strong motivation to develop nuclear technology before a wartime enemy, yielded results in a short period of time. Today, public safety concerns create vast time and money-consuming regulatory compliance processes. Once SMR technology is proven, and further development decreases unit costs, the promise of the new atomic age, and the abundant energy it could provide, will be upon us.

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